Yankees vs Padres
Fried and Buehler meet at Petco
September 4, 2026 · 9:40 PM ET · Petco Park · Interleague
Three things that decide this game
- Starters are far apart: Fried at 2.80, Buehler at 4.66, with 3 home runs allowed against 17.
- Bullpen ERA is 3.09 to 3.51, but blown saves run 26 to 18 the other way.
- New York are without Judge and Stanton on the 60-day IL, and the lineup hits just .239 with runners in scoring position.
Probable pitchers
| Category | NYY · Max Fried | SD · Walker Buehler |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4-4 | 8-6 |
| ERA | 2.80 | 4.66 |
| WHIP | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| IP | 90.0 | 131.1 |
| Starts | 16 | 27 |
| K | 83 | 111 |
| K/9 | 8.30 | 7.61 |
| BB | 28 | 49 |
| Opp AVG | .198 | .256 |
| HR allowed | 3 | 17 |
| vs opponent (career) | 6 G, .230 AVG | 2 G, .391 AVG |
| Home / Away ERA | 3.13 / 2.56 | 4.15 / 5.23 |
Key players
| Team | Player | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | Aaron Judge | .248 | 17 | 38 | .908 |
| Luis García Jr. | .285 | 28 | 88 | .865 | |
| Ben Rice | .253 | 35 | 87 | .865 | |
| Paul Goldschmidt | .252 | 18 | 49 | .774 | |
| Padres | Ty France | .292 | 20 | 62 | .872 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | .284 | 19 | 70 | .799 | |
| Miguel Andujar | .259 | 5 | 22 | .726 | |
| Jackson Merrill | .241 | 22 | 70 | .711 |
Lineups compared — AVG, OPS, power, clutch
| Category | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Team AVG | .234 | .237 |
| OBP | .311 | .315 |
| SLG | .409 | .387 |
| OPS | .720 | .702 |
| Home runs | 192 | 153 |
| Runs | 636 | 594 |
| Clutch AVG w/ RISP | .239 | .259 |
| Clutch OPS w/ RISP | .734 | .746 |
| RBI w/ RISP | 390 | 407 |
Bullpens compared — closer, setup, middle, mop-up, damage control
| Role | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Closer | David Bednar 31 SV · 2.69 ERA · 3 BS | Mason Miller 32 SV · 1.26 ERA · 2 BS |
| Setup | Brent Headrick (24 H, 1.93) Fernando Cruz (19 H, 3.13) John Schreiber (14 H, 3.58) | Adrian Morejon (22 H, 2.77) Jason Adam (17 H, 2.51) Jeremiah Estrada (12 H, 3.48) |
| Setup ERA | 2.78 | 2.87 |
| Middle relief | Tim Hill (60 G, 4.08) Justin Topa (25 G, 6.95) Yerry De los Santos (15 G, 1.35) | Yuki Matsui (43 G, 1.99) David Morgan (22 G, 4.94) |
| Mop-up | Angel Chivilli (3.78) | – |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.09 | 3.51 |
| Saves / Blown | 40 / 26 | 40 / 18 |
| Damage control inherited runners scored | 14.0% (26/186) | 27.2% (31/114) |
Match report
The pitching matchup
Max Fried brings a 2.80 ERA over 90.0 innings with a 1.00 WHIP, a .198 opponent average and just 3 home runs allowed. Walker Buehler counters with a 4.66 ERA over 131.1 innings, a 1.36 WHIP and 17 home runs allowed.
Each starter against tonight’s opponent
Fried has faced the Padres 6 times, holding them to a .230 average with 31 strikeouts against 5 walks. Buehler has seen the Yankees 2 times and been hit hard: a .391 opponent average with 3 home runs allowed.
Season series
The two clubs have not met yet this season. With no head-to-head form to lean on, the starting matchup and current shape carry more weight than usual.
Key players
New York lean on Aaron Judge (.908 OPS), Luis García Jr. (.865 OPS), Ben Rice (.865 OPS). San Diego counter with Ty France (.872 OPS), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.799 OPS), Miguel Andujar (.726 OPS).
Current form
New York are 80-60 (.571), 6-4 in their last ten on a W2 run. San Diego are 73-67 (.521), 3-7 in their last ten on a L2 run.
Record at this ballpark
Petco Park. San Diego are 41-28 at home but only 32-39 on the road. The Yankees are the mirror image at 43-29 away against 37-31 at home. Fried has a 2.56 road ERA over 52.2 innings.
Yankees — strengths and weaknesses
Rotation — a 3.35 starters ERA against San Diego’s 4.36. Starters going deep keeps the bullpen fresh. Bullpen — a 3.09 relief ERA with a 2.78 setup ERA; inherited runners score 14.0% of the time. Closer — David Bednar, 31 saves at a 2.69 ERA, though the club has 26 blown saves overall. Lineup — .720 OPS with 192 home runs, but only a .239 average with runners in scoring position: power yes, situational hitting no.
Padres — strengths and weaknesses
Rotation — a 4.36 starters ERA, the weaker side here, with Musgrove, Pivetta and Giolito all on the 60-day IL. Bullpen — a 3.51 relief ERA with a 2.87 setup ERA; inherited runners score 27.2% of the time. Closer — Mason Miller, 32 saves at a 1.26 ERA, and only 18 blown saves as a club — the steadier mark. Lineup — .702 OPS with 153 home runs and a .259 average with runners in scoring position.
Bullpen breakdown — closer, setup, middle, mop-up, damage control
Closer: David Bednar (2.69) against Mason Miller (1.26). Setup: 2.78 vs 2.87 — whoever bridges the seventh and eighth more cleanly. Middle relief: 4.17 vs 2.88, the group that holds the game together when a starter exits early. Mop-up: 3.78 vs –. Damage control: 14.0% vs 27.2%, the share of inherited runners allowed to score. On blown saves it is 26 to 18 in San Diego’s favour.
Injury report
New York — Aaron Judge(RF·60일), Clarke Schmidt(P·60일), Fernando Cruz(P·15일), Giancarlo Stanton(DH·60일), Kervin Castro(P·60일), Ryan Weathers(P·15일). San Diego — Bryan Hoeing(P·60일), Gavin Sheets(1B·10일), Jason Adam(P·60일), Jeremiah Estrada(P·15일), Joe Musgrove(P·60일), Lucas Giolito(P·60일), Luis Rengifo(LF·60일), Miguel Andujar(DH·10일), Nick Pivetta(P·60일), Ramón Laureano(LF·60일).
The bottom line
Fried is the better starter tonight by a wide margin and the Yankees own the road record to match. San Diego’s path is Buehler holding the line for five or six and a bullpen that has blown fewer leads taking it home.
Team comparison
| Category | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Division rank | 2 | 3 |
| Record | 80-60 (.571) | 73-67 (.521) |
| Last 10 | 6-4 · W2 | 3-7 · L2 |
| Home / Away | 37-31 / 43-29 | 41-28 / 32-39 |
| Rotation ERA | 3.35 | 4.36 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.09 | 3.51 |
| Team ERA / WHIP | 3.24 / 1.17 | 3.94 / 1.29 |
Injury report
| Team | Injured list (40-man) |
|---|---|
| Yankees | Aaron Judge(RF·60일), Clarke Schmidt(P·60일), Fernando Cruz(P·15일), Giancarlo Stanton(DH·60일), Kervin Castro(P·60일), Ryan Weathers(P·15일) |
| Padres | Bryan Hoeing(P·60일), Gavin Sheets(1B·10일), Jason Adam(P·60일), Jeremiah Estrada(P·15일), Joe Musgrove(P·60일), Lucas Giolito(P·60일), Luis Rengifo(LF·60일), Miguel Andujar(DH·10일), Nick Pivetta(P·60일), Ramón Laureano(LF·60일) |
Who wins: New York Yankees or San Diego Padres?
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All figures are as of September 4, 2026 (US Eastern). Source: MLB Stats API. Setup/middle/mop-up groups are derived from relievers with no starts, ranked by holds and appearances; damage control is the share of inherited runners allowed to score.
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